Horse and TaxesTier 1
at 貓腳印松江店 地區賽 Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 41.2% | 31 | 16-15-0 | 51.6% | 51.4% | 51.7% | +0.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.8% | 13 | 8-3-2 | 69.2% | 64.7% | 60.0% | +4.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.5% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +0.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.4% | 9 | 6-3-0 | 66.7% | 61.5% | 59.9% | +4.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.1% | 6 | 0-5-1 | 8.3% | 25.0% | 27.6% | -11.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.4% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 73.9% | +15.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 4.4% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 45.8% | -2.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.0% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.4% | -2.0 |
| Water Allies | 3.3% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.5% | +3.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.6 |
| Wind Allies | 2.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.2% | +14.6 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.5% | -5.6 |
| Fire Exia | 2.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.5% | -7.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.2% | +7.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.0% | +16.3 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.3% | +4.1 |
| Water Fractal | 1.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 60.8% | +8.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -2.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
| Slimes | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.3% | -20.3 |
| Water Genbu | 1.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.2% | +5.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.1% | +5.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.2 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.6% | +6.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.4% | +8.1 |
| Wind Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.0% | -4.8 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.6 |
Decklists · 11 from this event
The 11 public Horse and Taxes decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 23 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 23 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diablerie | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Volda, Smolder's Spite | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Smoke Out | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastsoul Visage | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Beseech the Winds | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cinder Geyser | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Sparks | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Cry for Help | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Purifying Thurible | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Zephyr | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vainglory Retribution | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |